What’s Ukraine’s next move? How Zelensky could use Kursk invasion to outflank Putin’s troops & cut off his war machine – The US Sun | The US Sun

Nov 06, 2024

DARING Ukrainians could exploit the Kursk siege to outflank Vladimir Putin's troops, a defence pro has said.

Ukraine's armed forces have been pushing into villages across the Russian border since August 6 amid the first-ever invasion on Russian soil since World War Two.

Russians have been scrambling to defend Kyiv's audacious move, which sparked a "counter-terror" operation in regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk.

They are now sending their own tanks, trucks and troops in to fight Ukrainian troops who caught them off-guard.

Aerial attacks have been traded each night with both forces decimating each other in the barrages across the war-torn region.

But president Zelenskyy has vowed to go "even deeper" into Russia in the coming days as he prepares to hit back at Putin after more than two gruelling years of defending.

Dr Alan Mendoza, a Russia expert and founder of Brit think tank Henry Jackson Society, believes Ukraine may capitalise on the Kursk invasion to attack the enemies from behind.

The Russians, who have managed to grab - and hold - a large swathe of the area in east Ukraine, have formed a front line that begins near Kharkiv in the east and goes all the way down Crimea through Mariupol.

Dr Mendoza said the Ukrainian troops could try and encircle these Russian positions along the frontline - taking them by surprise.

He told The Sun: "One very clever move the Ukrainians could do is attempt to come around the back of the Russian positions in Ukraine. But that's a strategic and very ambitious move.

"If they were to go from their breakout position southwards, they could end up trying to encircle the Russians in some way, shape or form an extremely audacious move."

"Ukrainians would face one heck of a Russian assault, but they have already shown their ability to punch through the lines."

He explained that in theory, the daring military manoeuvre could cut into the Russian lines from the back of the Kharkiv region - and create smaller encircled pockets behind the enemy frontlines.

This could also cut off Russian military supply lines - something that would make the lives of Putin's troops "difficult".

The expert added: "If the Ukrainians are minded to stay in Russian territory, it would make sense for them to continue pushing forward as far as they can while the Russians remain off balance. This is one obvious option for them to take."

For the past week, Kyiv has been raining hell across the Russian border in various regions of Kursk.

And Zelenskyy's planned assaults are proving successful with a state of emergency being declared in Belgorod just days ago.

Belgorod is the second Russian area after Kursk City to show the full effects of the Ukrainian offensive.

The local governor of the region says they have suffered 23 drone attacks in the past 48 hours.

Dr Mendoza said: "Belgorod is to the south of Kursk and would be the next region you would move into if you did want to try an encircling manoeuvre.

"Ukrainians are suggesting their goal is now to create a buffer zone between their border and Russia to stop the shelling and attacks on their population centres."

But the expert said the creation of such buffer zones could suggest Kyiv is still trying to frame its offensive as a defensive move instead.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian troops, if able to hold positions inside Kursk, could use it as a bargaining chip during future peace talks in case of a proposed ceasefire, the expert added.

He said: "This could indeed be a trade-off given to the Russians in exchange for any parts of Ukraine that the Russians want to give back for that.

"I think what the Ukrainians need to show is sustained ability to damage Russia, as it were, and really embarrass Russia, for that to then lend itself to some kind of negotiated solution.

"But the more territory they hold, the more flexibility they will have at the negotiating table - if and when that actually comes to pass."

Kyiv's offensive is also said to be directed at easing some of the pressure on the northeast frontline where a Russian offensive continues.

And Zelensky's plan is working, it seems.

I think what the Ukrainians need to show is sustained ability to damage Russia... and really embarrass Russia

US officials told CNN that thousands of Russian troops have been diverted from active frontlines to contain Ukraine's incursion on Russian soil.

John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, said: "It is apparent to us that Mr Putin and the Russian military are diverting some resources, some units, towards the Kursk Oblast to ostensibly counter what the Ukrainians are doing."

Dr Alan believes this is the right time for the Ukrainian troops to stack up and choke the Russians, forcing them to end the war.

He added: "Ukraine needs to create pressure on Russia to end the war. This kind of humiliation is clearly some kind of pressure

"And if they to be able to hold the territory against a Russian counterattack that would be even more significant.

" I think it would lead to serious questions in Moscow about Putin's war strategy, and how it's actually playing out."

A trembling Vlad has been left fuming over the continued incursion as he has called on the Kremlin to deploy more troops into Kursk to “kick the enemy out".

Just one week into the incursion, Kyiv claimed to have captured a formidable 1,000 square kilometres of Russian soil - more than what Putin was able to seize in the past year.

And the figure is expected to continue to increase as they push on with their fiery war plans, says Ukrainian General Oleksander Syrsky.

Since the end of 2023, Russia has only managed to steal 994 square kilometres of land inside Ukraine, The Telegraph reports.

Reports vary on the exact figure the Kremlin has been able to seize- but the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) gives Putin credit for taking over 1,100 square miles around Donetsk.

But Moscow has also lost hundreds of thousands of troops on the battlefield in this time with - many killed or severely wounded, according to Ukrainian military estimates.

The number of casualties continue to rise in Kursk with Putin's men struggling to halt the Ukrainian advance.

It's estimated the Ukrainians have also captured up to 1,200 of their rival soldiers in the staggering surge.

President Zelenskyy said Russia's town of Sudzha - which is a highly strategic area in terms of geography - is now in the hands of Ukrainian troops.

Sudzha is a pivotal town due to the amount of Russian gas flowing through it.

It would also be the largest Russian town takeover since Nazi Germany invaded the country in the Second World War.

Ukrainian forces say a military commander's office was now being established there as the rampage into Russia continued.

All this comes as a huge blow to Putin, who not only is scrambling to defend his country but is also ceding grounds to the enemy.

Dr Alan told The Sun: "This is a huge blow to Vladimir Putin's prestige.

"This is indeed the first time since the Second World War that you've had Russian territory really being held by foreign powers.

"Putin was hoping he could grind Ukraine down a war as their supplies were diminished and Europe and the U.S.A. lost interest.

"But things have now turned around. The Ukrainians are now causing the Russians to worry about what happens next in this conflict, and where the Ukrainians might decide to strike next."

Kursk invasion will have some "serious repercussions" in Moscow, he added.

A DARING Ukrainian military push into Russia's Kursk region has become the largest attack on the country since World War Two.

Kyiv's forces have seized scores of villages, taken hundreds of prisoners and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians.

After more than a week of fighting, Russian troops are still struggling to drive out the invaders.

Why has the Russian military been caught so unprepared?

A long undefended border

Russia's regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod share a 720-mile border with Ukraine - including a 152-mile section in the Kursk region.And it only had symbolic protection before Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.It's been reinforced since then with checkpoints on key roads and field fortifications in places - but not enough to repel a Ukrainian assault.The most capable Russian units are fighting in eastern Ukraine, leaving the border vulnerable to attack.

Element of surprise

Ukrainian troops participating in the incursion were reportedly only told about their mission a day before it began.The secrecy contrasted with last year's counteroffensive - when Ukraine openly declared its goal of cutting the land corridor to annexed Crimea.Ukraine ended up failing as troops trudged through Russian minefields and were pummelled by artillery and drones.But in Kursk, Ukrainian troops didn't face any of these obstacles.Battle-hardened units easily overwhelmed Russian border guards and small infantry units made up of inexperienced conscripts.The Ukrainians drove deep into the region in several directions - facing little resistance and sowing chaos and panic.

Russia's slow response

The Russian military command initially relied on warplanes and choppers to try to stop the onslaught.At least one Russian helicopter gunship was shot down and another was damaged.Moscow began pulling in reinforcements, managing to slow Ukraine's advances - but failed to completely block troops.

"It's a very significant moment for the much-vaunted Russian fighting machine that is already damaged.

"Let's not forget its failure to win in Ukraine back in 2022. So it does look like the Russian Emperor has no clothes, as it were in this conflict.

"It should just raise a lot of question marks about where Russia is heading in this, how it brings the war to a close or whether Ukraine is really going to succeed in pushing Russia out.

"I think the most important thing is, it's created an element of uncertainty once again about the conflict, and how it actually ends, what was looking to be an exorbitantly slow.

"You know Russian victory has now turned on its head, and that tells you that things cannot be good for Mr. Putin."

Keir Giles, Russia expert at Chatham House, told The Sun that Kyiv had been "brewing plans for something big" - and the incursion changes the dynamics of the war "well out of proportion".

He said: "The Kursk invasion justifies the promises that we heard from Ukrainian sources over previous weeks and months that something big was brewing.

"And it does have the potential to change the dynamics of the war well out of proportion to the actual area a relatively small area of Russia that is affected."

"Kyiv's objectives coincide with what Western analysts had assessed - the attack is putting Ukraine in a better negotiating position, easing pressure on the front elsewhere, and causing disruption to Russia itself and social discord.

"And in that last one Russia has actually helped because it's publicised to the whole of the country, just how much disruption and how much impact there has been in those border areas, hundreds of thousands of people being displaced, reinforcements called in from Moscow, etc, and also the admission that the situation is not under control."

By Ellie Doughty, Foreign News Reporter

UKRAINE'S daring invasion into Russia has been launched for two key reasons - with one aimed at Putin and one at the West.

A high-ranking Ukrainian official told AFP that the idea behind the attack is to stretch Putin's armies as much as possible, spreading them thinly over different areas.

The security brass told AFP on condition of anonymity that "the aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border".

As well as acting as a huge morale-boosting win for Ukraine - the invasion also has a second key purpose in Kyiv's master plan.

It is a message to allies in the West who have closely monitored Putin's war.

Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told The Washington Post: "This is definitely one consideration that it is really a signal to the West and to Ukrainian allies and partners that Ukraine is still capable of launching offensive operations.

"That Ukraine is capable of conducting fairly complex operations into enemy territory."

Vlad on the other hand claims Ukraine is simply trying to gain leverage for peace talk negotiations.